Project overview
CARE examines the broad parameters of the project based on the detailed project report submitted by the client. The major areas covered are:
- Location: The location of a port is key to its operations being commercially viable.
- Location has a bearing on the project cost and other key operating characteristics like draft, siltation, storage and evacuation facilities etc.
- Accessibility to the port
- Technical arrangements and collaborations
- Implementation schedule
- Any firm contracts for loading / unloading of cargo
- Economic development of the hinterland
Project Implementation Risk
The risk associated with the completion of a greenfield project on time is generally high due to long set-up time and large financial outlays. In this regard, the following issues are examined.
- Capabilities of the contractor and other parties involved in implementing the project.
- Financial tie-up.
- Cushion provided in the financing plan and construction schedule for possible delays.
- Legal and environmental clearances required for the execution of the project.
During project implementation, CARE would monitor the progress vis-a-vis the initial cost and time estimates to determine the effect of variations from schedule on the ability to meet debt servicing obligations.
Demand Analysis
Focus on demand and potential variation of demand due to economic changes, is the most essential ingredient for commercially viable operations. The aspects examined are:
- Demand sensitivity to tariff
- Location of the port and its connectivity3
- Cargo and revenue mix
- Development of new alternative ports
- Government policies on international trade
Evaluation of cargo-mix
CARE evaluates the cargo-mix closely to assess the port’s vulnerability to competition and the stability of revenue streams.
- Trends in international and national cargo movements
- Demand for specific cargo types
- Cyclical nature of the cargo and cargo movement
- Revenue stream from different types of cargo
- Flexibility of the port to shift from one cargo type to another
- Trends of imports and exports to/from the region
Regulatory Framework
- Government policies and procedures
- Identification of the obligations and rights of the project sponsor
- Terms and conditions of the contract
- Environmental regulations
- Political risks
Financial Structure
- Study of the capital structure of the project to determine the optimal leverage
- Exposure to currency risk
- Maturity profile
- Payback period and sensitivity to financing costs
- Any covenants in the debt documents or the agreement, which may impair debt servicing capability, are also evaluated critically
Management Evaluation
CARE evaluates the management from different perspectives like
- Organisation structure and degree of autonomy
- Financial capabilities
- Experience in the sector4
- Ability to maintain harmonious labor relations
- Track record in implementing and operating large projects
Operating risks
Port operations carry the following unique operating risks which CARE analyses in detail:
- Susceptibility to the vagaries of weather and other natural hazards
- Proportion of firm commitments for cargo movement
- Ability of the operator to maintain optimum operating conditions
- Changes in global shipping practices
- Contract terms with the shipping lines
- Customer profile and degree of diversification
- Competition from any other alternative mode
- Technology
Financial Analysis
An in-depth analysis of the projected operations is undertaken to assess the ability of the port operations to service its debt obligations. This would also entail a critical examination of the underlying assumptions in context of the above factors. CARE would also examine the following as part of its financial evaluation:
- adequacy and stability of cash flow
- coverage available for debt servicing
- financial flexibility
- comparison with other similar ports
- factors which could have a critical impact on the servicing ability
Conclusion
CARE analyses each of the above factors and their linkages to arrive at the overall assessment of credit quality. The reduction in credit risk due to any credit enhancement provided is carefully evaluated before assigning the final rating.
While the methodology encompasses comprehensive analysis of the project implementation risks, demand analysis, regulatory framework, management evaluation and financial analysis, the credit rating is awarded on the basis of an overall assessment of all aspects.
Disclaimer
CARE’s ratings are opinions on credit quality and are not recommendations to sanction, renew, disburse or recall the concerned bank facilities or to buy, sell or hold any security. CARE has based its ratings on information obtained from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. CARE does not, however, guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. Most entities whose bank facilities/instruments are rated by CARE have paid a credit rating fee, based on the amount and type of bank facilities/instruments.